Black Friday’s 4 Best Deals: A Data-Driven Approach to Savings

Capital One Shopping’s exclusive analysis of historical pricing has identified the 4 best deals for consumers during Black Friday 2017. For the first time consumers can know — without a doubt — how much they’ll save by waiting until Black Friday.

Since launching last year, Capital One Shopping has grown to a community of 1.5 million shoppers who share prices, coupons, and offers found in real-time while they shop. Capital One Shopping makes comparison shopping a one-click effort from a vetted list of thousands of ecommerce sellers, including major retailers, brands, and other small retailers.

The community effort of Capital One Shoppers creates a tremendous amount of historical price data — which products are being sold, at what prices, at what retailers, when, and where.

In our 2017 analysis of back-to-school supplies prices, we found that prices for products would change hour-by-hour, state-by-state, and shopper-by-shopper. If this was true during the back-to-school season — the second biggest retail season of the year — it would also be true for the biggest, Black Friday.

So for Black Friday, we decided to take a data-driven approach to determine how good a deal select doorbusters are compared to their historical averages and lows. We looked at four doorbusters offered by at least two retailers: the Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Smart Electric Toothbrush, the Instant Pot 7-in-1 pressure cooker (6 qt.), Playstation 4 Slim (1 TB), and the XBox One S (500 GB).

Oprah’s Favorite Electric Toothbrush: The Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Smart Electric Toothbrush

The Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Smart electric toothbrush is one of Oprah’s Favorite Things as well as a doorbuster at Kohl’s (on sale for $159.99) and eBay (on sale for $154.99).

Based on the previous six months of price data, Capital One Shopping has determined that this doorbuster is a deal. Shoppers will save between 10–23% on Black Friday at these retailers compared to the average price of this doorbuster on Amazon ($207.80) or other retailers ($179.44).

However, this isn’t lowest price spotted by Capital One Shoppers. In early September, a Capital One Shopper spotted this popular toothbrush on sale for $110. For Black Friday, Capital One Shopping recommends making the Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Smart Toothbrush your next favorite thing.

Prime Day’s Top Seller: Instant Pot 7-in-1 Pressure Cooker

The Instant Pot 7-in-1 pressure cooker (6 qt.) is the most sought-after home appliance since Capital One Shopping started tracking prices. It was the top-selling product on Amazon during this year’s Prime Day and has remained a top performing product in its category.

For this Black Friday, the Instant Pot is a doorbuster on Target ($79.95), Kohl’s (advertised as $79.99, but shoppers get $15 in Kohl’s Cash after purchase), and will more than likely be an online doorbuster for Amazon (currently $84.95).

Based on the previous 6 months of price data, Capital One Shopping has determined that this doorbuster from Kohl’s and Target is a great deal. The lowest price Capital One Shoppers spotted for this pressure cooker was $68, making Kohl’s doorbuster a bargain. Shoppers will save between 26–38% on Black Friday compared to the average price of the pressure cooker on Amazon ($104.62) or most other retailers ($95.31).

For those wanting to save even more money on Black Friday while still enjoying the benefits of 7-in-1 pressure cooker, the 5-quart model will be a $49 doorbuster at Walmart.

Savings So Good, It’s Criminal: The Playstation 4 Slim

Gaming fans would be foolish to pass up this next doorbuster: Sony’s Playstation 4 Slim (1 TB) will be on sale for $199 on Walmart and Target, and Kohl’s ($199, but shoppers get in $60 in Kohl’s Cash after purchase). Based on 6 months of historical price data, Capital One Shopping has determined that this gaming doorbuster from Walmart, Target, Jet.com, and Kohl’s is a steal.

Thrifty shoppers will save at least 51% on Black Friday compared to the average price of the PS4 on either Amazon ($311.22) or other retailers ($288.09). Even when compared to the lowest price spotted by Capital One Shoppers (at $259 during Amazon Prime Day), this is a great deal.

Gamers Want One: XBox One S

Target, Walmart, and Kohl’s are offering the XBox One S (500 GB) gaming console as a doorbuster, and guess what, it’s a great deal. Based on the previous 6 months of price data, Capital One Shopping has determined that this doorbuster from Walmart ($189), Target ($189.99, but shoppers receive a $25 Target gift card after purchase), and Kohl’s ($189, but shoppers received $45 in Kohl’s Cash after purchase) are a steal.

Shoppers are expected to save at least $100 on Black Friday compared to the average price of these doorbusters on Amazon ($311.22) or other retailers ($288.09). The doorbuster prices are a lot lower than what we’ve seen during Prime Day ($190). Gaming fans — or their loved ones — will want to jump on this deal.