Online Shopping Trends (2026): Buying Behaviors & Growth Rates

Highlights. If current global online shopping trends continue, e-commerce will be worth $8.91 trillion by 2030.

Online shopping will grow to represent 23.9% of global retail sales by 2030 (from 20.5% in 2025).
U.S. shoppers increased online spending 13.5% per year on average from 2015 to 2025.
Worldwide, online shoppers increased spending by an average of 15.6% year-over-year (YoY).
As a share of U.S. retail sales, online shopping increased at an 8.22% average annual rate.
Mobile shopping will trend upward to represent 67% of online sales by 2030.

Financial data have not been seasonally adjusted; this report does not use seasonally adjusted values unless noted.

Bar & Line Graph: Quarterly U.S. eCommerce Sales Growth from 2023 Q1 ($244 billion in e-commerce sales; 7.75% YoY change) to 2026 Q1 ($302 billion; 9.65%), according to U.S. Census Bureau

Online Spending Trends

Statistics indicate that worldwide online spending is growing faster than global inflation.

Projections indicate increased global online spending at an average annual rate of 6.80% from 2025 to 2030.
Global consumers spent an estimated $6.42 trillion online in 2025, up 6.86% YoY.
eCommerce revenue as a percentage of global retail sales increased 3.02% YoY.
Also in 2025, worldwide online spending growth outpaced the worldwide currency inflation rate* by 66.1%.
In 2026, global e-commerce sales are expected to total $6.88 trillion, accounting for 21.1% of all retail sales.
Compared to 2025, e-commerce sales are projected to increase 7.18%, and e-commerce’s share of retail sales is expected to grow by 2.93%.
From 2020 to 2025, e-commerce grew 43.6% while global currency inflation totaled 30.1%.

*Based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund; the global currency inflation rate for 2025 was 4.13%. Line Graph: Annual eCommerce Sales Growth, global and domestic, from 2020 to 2025 and projections to 2030 according to the U.S. Census Bureau and eMarketer

U.S. Online Spending Trends

Projections indicate that online sales growth from 2025 to 2030 will exceed average currency inflation.

American consumers spent $1.43 trillion online in 2025, up 7.03% YoY.
U.S. e-commerce sales are projected to total $1.53 trillion in 2026, up 6.94% YoY.
Projections indicate U.S. online sales revenue will increase by a total of 38.7%, or at an average annual rate of 6.76%, between 2025 and 2030.
eCommerce represented 19.0% of retail sales in 2025.
The monthly record for online purchases as a percentage of total retail sales dollars was 21.8% in December 2025, which was 15.0% higher than the average for that year.
Mobile online purchases as a percentage of U.S. e-commerce sales increased 18.3%, or at an average annual rate of 3.43%, from 2020 to 2025.
Projections indicate that mobile online purchases as a percentage of e-commerce sales will increase 16.0%, or at an average annual rate of 3.02%, from 2025 to 2030.

Line Graph: Annual eCommerce Share of Retail Sales, global and domestic, from 2020 to 2025 with projections to 2030 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Statista, and eMarketer

eCommerce Shopping Trends

eCommerce as a share of all retail increases annually, and a larger percentage of consumers are shopping online.

Worldwide, the percentage of retail commerce conducted online increased 198% from 2015 to 2025, for an average annual growth rate of 13.4%.
In the United States, the percentage of retail commerce conducted online increased 115% from 2015 to 2025, for an average annual growth rate of 8.22%.
49% of American consumers shopped online at least once per week in 2024, down 15% from 2023 (when 57% of consumers shopped online weekly).
12% of consumers shopped online daily in 2024; 68% shopped online more than once per month.

Line Graph: Global Social Media eCommerce Sales in billions from 2020 ($297) to 2025 ($886) with projections to 2030 ($1,703) according to Statista & eMarketer

Social eCommerce Trends

Shopping on social media platforms is expected to increase at a faster rate than e-commerce overall through 2030

Revenue from social media e-commerce is expected to increase 18.1% YoY to $1.05 trillion in 2026.
From 2020 to 2025, social commerce spending increased by 198%, or at an average annual rate of 24.6%.
Global social commerce sales are expected to reach $1.70 trillion in 2030, increasing at an average annual rate of 14.0%.
As a share of e-commerce spending, social media sales increased by 14.7% annually from 2020 to 2025.
Social commerce accounts for an estimated 15.2% of online spending in 2026.
Social commerce sales in the U.S. are expected to reach $117.5 billion in 2026, up 11.4%.
By 2030, U.S. consumers will spend $159.8 billion on social media with an average annual increase of 8.67%.
As of 2026, 31.2% of global e-commerce consumers and 35.9% of U.S. consumers shop on social media.
43% of online consumers in the U.S. shop and expect to buy directly from Facebook at least once in a fiscal quarter.
33% of consumers shop with the intent to buy on YouTube, 32% shop on TikTok, and 27% shop on Instagram.

Line Graph: Social Commerce Share of Online Shopping from 2020 (7.00%) to 2025 (13.8%) with projections to 2030 (19.1%) according to Statista

AI Online Shopping Trends

In addition to giving retailers more ways to engage their customers, online artificial intelligence (AI) and data tools personalize the shopper experience (even when shoppers block third-party cookies).

The market for AI in retail was valued at $18.3 billion in 2026; projections indicate that value will grow to $53.1 billion in 2030.
According to projections, the retail AI market value will grow at an annual rate of 30.5%.
71% of consumers support AI integration in retail as of 2025.
82% of consumers would rather deal with a chatbot than wait 15 minutes to talk to a real person.
74% of consumers who use voice-based AI have completed part of the retail buying process with a conversational voice assistant.
46% of consumers express enthusiasm about AI’s impact on the online shopping experience.

Line Graph: Monthly U.S. eCommerce Sales from 2024, 2025, and 2026 according to the U.S. Census Bureau

Online Payment Trends

Flexible payment options and omnichannel fulfillment increase e-commerce accessibility, making it possible for more people to shop online.

60% of global e-commerce sales come from mobile devices; projections indicate the mobile share of e-commerce will reach 67% by 2030.
Digital wallets paid for 56% of global online purchases in 2025; projections indicate that this will increase to 63% by 2030.
Digital wallet use increased 141% from 2014 to 2024.
Buy Now, Pay Later accounted for 4% of global online purchases in 2025.
Global use of BNPL increased 400% from 2014 to 2024.
The “click-and-collect” retail market, including curbside pick-up and buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS), increased sales by an estimated 15.3% from 2025 to 2026.
Click-and-collect sales increased 105% in 2020 (during the COVID pandemic).

Line Graph: Seasonally Adjusted Monthly U.S. eCommerce Sales from 2024, 2025, and 2026 according to the U.S. Census Bureau

Online Holiday Spending Trends

American consumers are most likely to buy online during the holiday shopping season, when e-commerce as a percentage of retail sales peaks; by some estimates, online revenue represented 25.1% of 2025 holiday retail sales.

U.S. online retail sales increase 24-26% during the holiday shopping season as indicated by average monthly sales*.
The e-commerce share of holiday retail sales increased 1.47% YoY (from 24.7% in 2024).
From 2020 to 2025, the e-commerce share of holiday retail sales increased 1.81% (from 24.6% in 2020).
After seasonal adjustments**, online revenue during the holiday season 2025 exceeded the rest of the year by 4.24%; 2024 online holiday revenue exceeded the rest of the year by 3.91%.

*Average monthly sales from the first three fiscal quarters compared to average monthly sales from the fourth quarter.

**Seasonally adjusted data accounts for fluctuations in the market based on the time of year; these data more accurately illustrate market health.

World Map: Selected International eCommerce Growth Rate projections from 2025 to 2030 in 20 different countries according to Statista

International eCommerce Trends

The United States has a significant share of the global e-commerce market, but other countries have experienced and will continue to experience faster growth in their own domestic markets.

Some projections indicate that annual e-commerce revenue in the U.S. will increase 11.1% slower than the global average from 2025 to 2030.
eCommerce revenue in India is expected to have one of the highest growth rates at 11.8% YoY from 2025 to 2030.
India’s projected growth rate exceeds expectations for global growth by 87.1%.
Projected growth rates also exceed 7% for Japan, Indonesia, Turkey, and China.
Australia’s e-commerce market is expected to grow slowly at an annual rate of 3.39% from 2025 to 2030.
Russia, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands all have projected growth rates of less than 4%.

Line Graph: Number of Online Shoppers Worldwide, from 2020 (2.37 billion) to 2022 (2.56 billion) and projections to 2030 (2.96 billion) according to eMarketer

Online Consumer Trends

As online accessibility continues to increase, so will e-commerce revenue and participation.

An estimated 2.77 billion global consumers shopped online in 2025.
An additional 51.3 million people are expected to shop online in 2026.
Projections indicate 2.96 billion global online shoppers in 2030.
The number of online shoppers worldwide increases at an average annual rate of 2.24%
33.8% of people worldwide shopped online in 2025, up 1.34% YoY.
Projections indicate that in 2030, over 34.7% of people worldwide will shop online.
From 2020 to 2025, the share of digital shoppers among the global population increased by 12.0%.

Line Graph: Number of U.S. Online Shoppers from 2020 (211.7 million) to 2024 (273.5 million) with projections to 2030 (342.7 million) according to Statista

U.S. Online Shopper Trends

Compared to the global population, Americans are more than twice as likely to shop online.

288.5 million U.S. consumers shopped online in 2025.
13.4 million more Americans will start shopping online in 2026.
Projections indicate 342.7 million U.S. e-commerce consumers by 2030.
The number of U.S. online shoppers increases by 5.23% in a typical year.
U.S. digital shoppers in 2025 represented 84.3% of the total population, up 4.78% YoY.
Projections indicate that in 2030, over 96% of people in the U.S. will shop online.
From 2020 to 2025, the share of digital shoppers among the U.S. population increased 32.0%.
In 2024, 53% of online consumers report shopping on Amazon at least once in a fiscal quarter, down 24.3% YoY.
Also during one fiscal quarter, 32% of consumers shop at least once on Walmart.com (down 20.0% YoY), 13% shop on eBay (down 31.6% YoY), and 13% shop on Target.com (no change YoY).

Stacked Bars: Share of Online Shoppers Among Age Groups, online-only and hybrid, among four generations plus all consumers according to the National Retail Federation

Generational eCommerce Trends

Younger shoppers are more likely to buy online while older generations shop primarily in-store. As tech-native generations age and come to dominate the consumer population, the share of online shoppers will increase.

Compared to all shoppers, those born between 1995 and 2003 (Generation Z) are 16.4% more likely to shop online.
Those born between 1980 and 1994 (sometimes called “Millennials”) are 12.7% more likely to shop online than the average consumer.
Compared to all shoppers, those born between 1965 and 1979 (Generation X) are 9.09% less likely to shop online.
Consumers born between 1946 and 1964 (Baby Boomers) are 27.3% less likely to shop online compared to the average consumer.
56.3% of Gen Z online shoppers usually order for curbside or in-store pick-up, making them the most likely to use a hybrid method of shopping.

Historical Online Trends

eCommerce sales are on a consistent 25-year climb.

Between 1997 and 2015, global e-commerce increased 5,854%.
From 1997 to 2000, combined U.S. e-commerce and mail-order sales revenue increased at an average annual rate of 17.4%.
Between 1999 and 2000, the combined e-commerce and mail order revenue increased 20.8%.
From 2000 to 2020, e-commerce spending increased at an average annual rate of 11.0%.
In 2000, U.S. consumers spent $112.5 billion on e-commerce.
From 2000 to 2010, annual e-commerce spending increased 131% to $260.1 billion.
Also in 2000, e-commerce sales dollars accounted for 3.86% of nationwide retail sales revenue.
Between 2000 and 2010, the e-commerce market share increased 80.1%.
From 2010 to 2020, annual e-commerce spending increased 235% to $871.3 billion.
Between 2010 and 2020, the e-commerce market share increased 129%.
2021 global online retail sales dollars increased 17.2% YoY.

The following data and insights were compiled by the Capital One Shopping team based on publicly available data.

Online Shopping Trends