Highlights. Global online spending increased at an average annual rate of 20.1% from 2014 to 2022; projections indicate an average 11.16% annual increase from 2023 to 2027.
- American online spending increased at an average annual rate of 13.61% from 2014 to 2022; projections indicate a 11.22% increase in 2023.
- Global consumer e-commerce spending increased 8.2% and U.S. spending increased 12.2% year-over-year (YoY) from 2021 to 2022.
- eCommerce represents 21.5% of global retail sales; projections indicate that will increase to 23.8% in 2025.
- Projections indicate an additional 208 million global online shoppers, including 3.38 million more U.S. online shoppers, by 2025.
- The number of online shoppers worldwide increases at an average annual rate of 6.55% while the number of Americans shopping online increases by 1.66%.
Financial data have not been seasonally adjusted; this report does not use seasonally adjusted values unless noted.
More Online Spending
Statistics indicate that, in 2023, worldwide online spending grew almost at the same pace as the global currency inflation rate.
- Global consumers spent an estimated $6.31 trillion online in 2023, up 10.4% YoY.
- eCommerce revenue as a percentage of global retail sales increased 2.50% YoY.
- Also in 2023, worldwide online spending growth outpaced the worldwide currency inflation rate* by 50.8%.
- Revenue from social media e-commerce increased 102% YoY to $992 billion in 2022.
- From 2016 to 2021, e-commerce grew over 135% while global currency inflation totaled 21.1%.
*Based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund; the global currency inflation rate for 2023 was 6.88%.
More U.S. Online Spending
Projections indicate that online sales growth from 2023 to 2027 will exceed average currency inflation.
- American consumers spent an estimated $1.28 trillion online in 2023.
- U.S. e-commerce sales totaled $1.15 trillion in 2022 up 12.2% YoY.
- Some projections indicate U.S. online sales revenue will increase by a total of 67.5% or an average annual rate of 16.9% between 2023 and 2028.
- eCommerce represented a quarterly average of 14.9% of retail sales in 2023.
- The monthly record for online purchases as a percentage of total retail sales dollars was 17.1% in April 2020, which was 19.7% higher than the average for that year.
- Mobile online purchases as a percentage of total U.S. retail sales increased 58.5% or an average annual rate of 11.7% from 2019 to 2023.
- Projections indicate that mobile online purchases as a percentage of retail sales will increase 33.8% or an average annual rate of 8.5% from 2023 to 2026.
More Shopping Online
eCommerce as a share of all retail increases annually, and a larger percentage of consumers are shopping online.
- Worldwide, the percentage of retail commerce conducted online increased 405% from 2014 to 2023, for an average annual growth rate of 40.5%.
- In the United States, the percentage of retail commerce conducted online increased 111% from 2014 to 2023, for an average annual growth rate of 11.1%.
- 21% of American consumers shopped online at least once daily in 2023 Q3, up 5% from 2023 Q2 (when 20% of consumers shopped online daily).
- 57% of consumers shop online at least once per week in the third fiscal quarter (Q3) of 2023.
More Ways to Buy Online
Flexible payment options and omnichannel fulfillment increase e-commerce accessibility, making it possible for more people to shop online.
- 72% of global e-commerce sales come from mobile devices; projections indicate the mobile share of e-commerce will exceed 87% in 2026.
- Digital wallet use increased 17.2% from 2019 to 2022.
- Digital wallets paid for 49% of global online purchases in 2022; projections indicate that will increase to 54% by 2026.
- Global use of BNPL increased 67% from 2021 to 2022 while North American use increased 25%.
- The “click-and-collect” retail market, including curbside pick-up and buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS), increased sales 19.4% from 2021 to 2022.
- Click-and-collect sales increased 104.5% in 2020 (during the COVID pandemic).
- 50% of consumers shop and expect to buy directly from Facebook at least once in a fiscal quarter.
- Also in one fiscal quarter, 47% of consumers shop with the intent to buy on YouTube, 40% shop on Instagram, and 36% shop on TikTok.
- 34% of cryptocurrency holders have used their crypto to make a purchase (other than buying more crypto).
More Online Holiday Spending
American consumers are most likely to buy online during the holiday shopping season, when e-commerce as a percentage of retail sales peaks; by some estimates, online revenue represented 21.6% of 2022 holiday retail sales.
- U.S. online retail sales increase 20-26% during the holiday shopping season as indicated by average monthly sales*.
- The e-commerce share of retail sales increased 3.35% YoY (from 20.9% in 2021).
- From 2019 to 2021, the e-commerce share of retail sales increased 43.2% (from 14.6% in 2019).
- After seasonal adjustments**, online revenue during the holiday season 2022 exceeded the rest of the year 3.24%; 2021 online holiday revenue exceeded the rest of the year 6.88%.
*Average monthly sales from the first three fiscal quarters compared to average monthly sales from the fourth quarter.
**Seasonally adjusted data accounts for fluctuations in the market based on the time of year; these data more accurately illustrate market health.
More International Spending
The United States has a significant share of the global e-commerce market, but other countries have experienced and will continue to experience faster growth in their own domestic markets.
- Projections indicate that annual e-commerce revenue in the U.S. will increase 0.5% faster than the global average from 2023 to 2027.
- eCommerce revenue in India is expected to have one of the highest growth rates at 14.11% YoY from 2023 to 2027.
- India’s projected growth rate exceeds expectations for global growth by 26.4%.
- Projected growth rates also exceed 13% for Brazil, Argentina and Turkey.
- South Korea’s e-commerce market is expected to grow slowly at an annual rate of 2.89% from 2023 to 2027.
- Germany, France, and the United Kingdom all have projected growth rates of less than 9%.
More Online Shoppers
As online accessibility continues to increase, so will e-commerce revenue and participation.
- 2.33 billion global consumers shopped online in 2023.
- Projections indicate 2.54 billion global online shoppers in 2025.
- 29.0% of people worldwide shopped online in 2022, up 3.26% YoY.
- Projections indicate that in 2025, over 30% of people worldwide will shop online.
- From 2016 to 2023, the share of digital shoppers among the global population increased 43.0%.
More U.S. Online Shoppers
Compared to the global population, Americans are more than twice as likely to shop online.
- 235 million U.S. consumers shopped online in 2023.
- Projections indicate 239 million U.S. consumers by 2025.
- The number of U.S. digital shoppers in 2023 represented 70.2% of the total population, up 0.35% YoY.
- Projections indicate that in 2025, over 70% of people in the U.S. will shop online.
- From 2016 to 2023, the share of digital shoppers among the U.S. population increased 8.15%.
- 53% of online consumers report shopping on Amazon at least once in a fiscal quarter, down 20.9% YoY.
- Also during one fiscal quarter, 33% of consumers shop at least once on Walmart.com (down 8.33% YoY), 14% shop on eBay (no change YoY), and 13% shop on Target.com (down 27.8% YoY).
More Youth Shopping Online
Younger shoppers are more likely to buy online while older generations shop primarily in-store. As tech-native generations age and come to dominate the consumer population, the share of online shoppers will increase.
- Compared to all shoppers, those born between 1995 and 2003 (Generation Z) are 16.4% more likely to shop online.
- Those born between 1980 and 1994 (sometimes called “Millennials”) are 12.7% more likely shop online than the average consumer.
- Compared to all shoppers, those born between 1965 and 1979 (Generation X) are 9.09% less likely to shop online.
- Consumers born between 1946 and 1964 (Baby Boomers) are 27.3% less likely to shop online compared to the average consumer.
- 56.3% of Gen Z online shoppers usually order for curbside or in-store pick-up, making them the most likely to use a hybrid method of shopping.
- Gen Z shoppers are 83.3% more likely than the average consumer to consider influencer recommendations.
- Millennials are 46.7% more likely to shop based on influencer recommendations while Gen X is 20.0% less likely to listen to influencers.
- Baby Boomers rarely, if ever, listen to influencers.
More Mission-Driven Shopping
If trends continue, employee treatment and social issues will impact consumer decisions more with time.
- 66% of consumers are more likely to buy from retailers that donate a portion of profits to charity.
- 78% of shoppers are more likely to buy from companies that actively work to improve employees’ well-being.
- 45% of consumers are more likely to buy products made by a small business.
- Younger shoppers are more likely to support a retailer that takes a stance on social issues; Gen Z and Millennial shoppers are 47.1% and 36.7%, respectively, more likely to shop at socially-active retailers than the average consumer.
- Baby Boomers are 17.1% more likely than average to say companies should not take a stance on social issues.
- Gen Z, Millennial, and Gen X shoppers are, respectively, 7.69%, 5.13%, and 2.56% more likely than average to buy from a company that treats its employees well.
- Boomers are 7.69% less likely than the average consumer to take a company’s treatment of its employees into account when making a purchase.
- Younger shoppers are more likely to purchase from small businesses; Gen Z and Millennial shoppers are, respectively, 33.3% and 31.1%, more likely to buy products made by small businesses than the average consumer.
- Gen X and Boomer shoppers are, respectively, 6.67% and 55.6% less likely than average to seek out products made by small businesses for purchase.
More Online Shopping Technology
In addition to giving retailers more ways to engage their customers, online artificial intelligence (AI) and data tools personalize shopper experience (even when shoppers block third-party cookies).
- The market for AI in retail was valued at $6.32 billion in 2022; projections indicate that value will grow to $31.18 billion in 2028.
- According to projections, the retail AI market value will grow at an annual rate of 65.6%.
- 62% of consumers would rather deal with a chatbot than wait 15 minutes to talk to a real person.
- 20% of page visitors interact with up-selling chatbots; 14% engage with discount chatbots.
- In 2022, 88% of online consumers interacted with chatbots.
- 33.2 million or 14.1% of American digital consumers shopped using smart speakers, such as Amazon’s Echo in 2022.
- From 2018 to 2022, the number of online shoppers using smart speakers increased 68.5%.
Historical Online Trends
eCommerce sales are on a consistent 25-year climb.
- Between 1997 and 2014, global e-commerce increased 5,038.5%.
- From 1997 to 2000, combined U.S. e-commerce and mail-order sales revenue increased at an average annual rate of 8.44%.
- Between 1999 and 2000, the combined e-commerce and mail order revenue increased 20.7%.
- From 2000 to 2020, e-commerce spending increased at an average annual rate of 34.0%.
- In 2000, U.S. consumers spent $113.79 billion on e-commerce.
- From 2000 to 2010, annual e-commerce spending increased 131.6% to $263.488 billion.
- Also in 2000, e-commerce sales dollars accounted for 3.46% of nationwide retail sales revenue.
- Between 2000 and 2010, the e-commerce market share increased 77.7%.
- From 2010 to 2020, annual e-commerce spending increased 237.2% to $888.502 billion.
- Between 2010 and 2020, the e-commerce market share increased 132.3%.
- 2021 global online retail sales dollars increased 22.7% YoY.
The following data and insights were compiled by the Capital One Shopping team based on publicly available data.
Sources
- United States Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Reports
- Statista, Industry Overview
- Fidelity Information Services (FIS), Global Payments Report
- Mississippi Department of Archives & History
- National Retail Federation
- Forbes
- Insider Intelligence
- Mastercard SpendingPulse
- JungleScout, Quarterly Changes in Consumer Trends
- Tidio, Chatbot Statistics
- HubSpot + Brandwatch, 2022 U.S. Consumer Trends Report